What can happen between now and July 15 with the first reopening in Italy yesterday was contained in a statistical model developed by Stefano Merler, the mathematician-epidemiologist of the Bruno Kessler Foundation who does the accounts for the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health.
- Calculations provided by Merler were: Up to 1,200 victims per day with Rt of 1.25 which translates to up to 1,200-1,300 victims a day.
- So far since February 2020, Merler has gotten the numbers right.
- A committee of 24 experts advising the Italian government on the pandemic, was decisive and reported to curb the reopening.
The calculations provided by Merler were: “Up to 1,200 victims per day with Rt of 1.25.” Rt is the measure of how quickly the virus is spreading. So Palazzo Chigi also known as Chigi Palace, which is the seat of the Council of Ministers and the official residence of the Prime Minister of Italy, rejected the idea to “free all.”
So far since February 2020, Merler has gotten the numbers right. The study, which was never made public by the government, but which publication Il Corriere could analyze and make available on April 16 at the Comitato Tecnico Scientifico (CTS), a committee of 24 experts advising the Italian government on the pandemic, was decisive and reported at Palazzo Chigi to curb the reopening, considering it too risky as requested by the leader of the Lega party, Matteo Salvini.
The latest Rt detected on symptomatic cases, referring to the period between March 31 and April 13, is 0.81. This is the starting point. In the projections there are only calculations, nothing about what to reopen and what not. These are choices that belong to the government led by Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi.